Energy Market Update - 01 August 2024

The market saw further upwards movement yesterday as Middle Eastern activity raised concerns.

Visund resumed full service after several weeks, but another asset has reduced capacity. The TTF Front Month contract settled at €35.87 (from €35.08), and the NBP Front Month contract at 86.98p (from 84.96p).

Sleipner's unplanned outage this morning sees flow levels at 340mcm (344). Russian nominations show Velke Kapusany at 40.0mcm (41.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage is 84.92% full, with one LNG vessel due in the UK in the coming weeks.

This morning, the TTF Front Month contract is at €36, unchanged from the previous settlement. Key contract prices are as follows: TTF Front Month at €36 and Front Season at €39 (unchanged), NBP Front Month at 87p and Front Season at 101p (from 85p and 99p), UK Gas NBP spot at 79p (from 81p), and UK Power DA at £82 (from £78). UK power prices show the Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (from £69) and Front Season at £87 (from £86).

In other market areas, Brent Oil is at $81 (from $79), EUAs at €69 (unchanged), Henry Hub at $2.04 (from $2.13), and JKM at $12.53 (from $12.48) with TTF Equiv of $11.40 (from $11.14). UK's power market shows a premium to French power, suggesting continued imports from France in August. UK wind power is expected to exceed historical averages by 20% for the first half of August.

European gas spot prices lifted as warm temperatures persisted but are expected to fall soon. Norwegian exports totalled 331.5mcm/day despite minor outages, and planned maintenance remains low for early August. The global LNG market remains tight, with JKM at a premium to TTF. Pan-European gas storage is strong at 84.92%. Uncertainty around Russian gas supply continues as the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement nears expiry in 2024.