Energy Market Update - 05 August 2024

A stable session seen on Friday, limiting the gains seen throughout last week.

Stronger Norwegian gas flows were observed this morning, while the LNG queue shows no ships heading towards the UK. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms, with warmer days this week followed by stability for the rest of August.

On Friday, the TTF Front Month contract settled at €36.65, down from €36.97, and the NBP Front Month contract closed at 89.80p, slightly lower than 90.17p. No unplanned outages were reported this morning, with flow levels at 356mcm (up from 342mcm). Russian nominations showed Velke Kapusany at 40.2mcm (up from 39.6mcm) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (down slightly from 42.4mcm). The Nord Stream pipeline remains unavailable, and EU gas storage is at 85.70% full according to AGSI+. No LNG vessels are due to arrive in the UK in the coming weeks.

This morning, the TTF Front Month contract is at €36, down €1 from the previous settlement. Key contracts show the Curve TTF Front Month at €36 and Front Season at €40 (compared to €37 and €40 previously). The Curve NBP Front Month is at 90p and Front Season at 104p (holding steady from 90p and 103p). The UK Gas NBP spot price is at 84p, down from 86p, while UK Power DA is at £60, significantly lower than £74.

UK power prices indicate the Front Month Baseload contract at £77, down from £78, and the Front Season at £89, a slight drop from £90. In other markets, Brent Oil is at $77, down from $80, and EUAs remain unchanged at €71. The Henry Hub price is stable at $1.97, and JKM is at $12.52, slightly up from $12.49, with the TTF equivalent at $11.75, up from $11.70.

The UK system remains long this morning by nearly 32mcm, with wind generation above seasonal norms. Langeled flows have increased from Friday, running over 70mcm this morning. Global stock market losses have created concerns about growth and demand for gas and oil, contributing to a decline in Brent crude prices.