Energy Market Update - 07 August 2024

The market recovered losses from Monday, with prices rising again due to ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical tensions.

LNG deliveries remain scarce, with no UK cargoes expected and only 14 arrivals anticipated across Europe in August. Temperatures are forecasted to rise briefly next week before stabilising near seasonal norms as we approach winter.

Yesterday, the TTF Front Month contract settled at €36.68 (up from €35.50), while the NBP Front Month closed at 90.29p (from 87.05p). Flow levels this morning are slightly down at 344 mcm, with Russian nominations lower at Velke Kapusany and Sudzha. EU gas storage stands at 86.29% full, and no LNG vessels are expected in the UK in the near term.

This morning, the TTF Front Month opened unchanged at €37, with other key contracts showing modest adjustments. The NBP Front Month is trading at 88.50p/therm, and the UK system remains long with supply exceeding demand by about 6 mcm. Strong Norwegian flows and steady LNG withdrawals contribute to this balance, while concerns over Middle Eastern tensions and potential US economic policies continue to influence the broader energy market.