Energy Market Update - 09 August 2024

The energy market remains tense due to ongoing conflicts affecting gas flows through Ukraine, with prices pushing toward recent highs.

Prices have surged as fears over reduced Russian gas flows intensify, pushing the TTF Front Month to settle at €40.10 (up from €38.45) and the NBP Front Month at 98.11p (up from 94.46p). These rises are driven by concerns over supply disruptions, as daily nominations at Sudzha continue to decline amidst ongoing clashes. The TTF contract holds steady at €40 this morning, while UK spot prices increased to 85p (from 81p) due to reduced wind generation and higher gas demand for power.

Norwegian gas flows are slightly down due to an unplanned outage at Kollsnes, with flows at 344mcm (from 348mcm). Despite the conflict, Russian gas nominations through Velke Kapusany and Sudzha show only minor changes, but the situation remains precarious. EU storage is strong at 86.65%, and only one LNG vessel is expected in the UK over the next two weeks, adding to supply concerns.

Other market indicators show Brent Oil at $79 (up from $78), with EUA prices stable at €71. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly at Sudzha, continue to drive the market, creating a complex and uncertain energy landscape.