Energy Market Update - 15 August 2024

The market remained stable yesterday, with prices cooling after last week's rise. High EU gas stocks and steady flows contributed to this calm.

EU gas storage levels are nearing 90%, well ahead of the October deadline. The TTF Front Month contract settled slightly lower at €38.97, while the NBP Front Month decreased to 94.19p. Supply remains stable with no unplanned outages, and Russian gas flows through key points continue without disruption. Nord Stream is still unavailable, but upcoming LNG arrivals should maintain adequate supply.

This morning, the TTF Front Month contract opened unchanged at €39. UK power prices are steady, with the Front Month Baseload at £80 and the Front Season edging up to £94. Despite a minor drop in Brent oil prices to $80, EUAs rose to €72, indicating a complex but balanced market.

Norwegian gas flows are steady at 332mcm/day, supporting the UK system, which opened with a surplus. The market is closely watching European temperatures, which are returning to seasonal norms after a recent heatwave. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments in Ukraine have not disrupted gas transit, keeping the market on an even keel.