Energy Market Update - 24 July 2024

A small further discount seen across the board in yesterday’s session.

The market continues to hold steady, with minor movements around this level over several weeks. No change in outlook for the time being – this trend may continue for now.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.62 (from €31.84) and the NBP Front Month contract at 73.21p (from 73.96p). Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning, with a flow level at 330mcm (321). Russian nominations show Velke Kapusany at 40.6mcm (39.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage is at 83.15% full as per AGSI+. One LNG vessel is due to arrive in the UK in the next couple of weeks.

This morning, the Front Month TTF contract is at €32, showing no change from the previous settlement. Key contracts are as follows: Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €37 (vs €32 and €37), Curve NBP Front Month 73p, Front Season 93p (vs 74p and 94p). UK Gas NBP spot is at 70p (from 74p), and UK Power DA is at £74 (from £72).

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£66) and Front Season at £83 (£83). In other markets, Brent Oil is at $81 ($82), EUAs are at €66 (€65), Henry Hub is at $2.19 ($2.25), and JKM is at $12.01 ($12.10) with a TTF equivalent of $10.07 ($10.16). The IFA1 interconnector between the UK and France has an unplanned outage of 636MW until 29 July, which may support prices this week or alleviate some bearish pressure.