Energy Market Update - 09 September 2024
The energy market saw a small uptick at the end of last week, with concerns around cooler temperatures and lower renewable output as key drivers.
On Friday, the TTF Front Month contract rose to €36.48 (from €36.20), and the NBP Front Month contract increased to 87.83p (from 86.99p). This rise coincided with Norwegian maintenance and an unplanned outage at Dvalin, which saw Norwegian gas flows fall to 185mcm (from 192mcm). EU gas storage remains healthy at 92.85% full, and three LNG vessels are expected to arrive in the UK within the next two weeks.
This morning, the TTF Front Month contract increased further to €37. Other key contracts remain stable, with the NBP Front Month contract at 88p and the Front Season at 98p. UK gas spot prices edged up to 88p (from 87p), while UK power prices rose to £82/MWh (from £75/MWh) due to reduced wind generation. Brent oil dipped slightly to $71 (from $73), and EU carbon prices rose to €67 (from €66).
The UK system opened balanced today, with cooler weather increasing demand. Norwegian exports fell slightly, and MRS withdrawals continue. Windspeeds are expected to rise, easing some pressure on gas-for-power demand, while LNG cargoes are expected to arrive soon, maintaining supply security.