Taiwan, Tariffs, and the Energy Market: Another Crisis in the Making?

It’s becoming a cliché at this point: a geopolitical crisis sends shockwaves through global energy markets, driving up prices, disrupting supply chains, and leaving policymakers scrambling for answers. We’ve seen it with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Trump’s first round of trade wars, and now, with renewed tensions over Taiwan.

This time, however, the stakes might be even higher. The combination of U.S. tariffs on Taiwan and the threat of a Chinese invasion presents a double whammy that could destabilise energy markets in ways we haven’t fully priced in. If the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that the global energy system is far more fragile than we’d like to admit.

So, let’s break it down: What happens to energy markets if Taiwan becomes the next flashpoint?