The Future of UK Wholesale Energy Prices: Navigating the LNG, Oil, and Geopolitical Crosswinds

The UK’s wholesale energy market is entering yet another phase of turbulence. The last two years have been dominated by shocks—Russia’s war in Ukraine, soaring LNG prices, emergency government interventions, and a scramble to keep the lights on without breaking the bank. But now, as we enter 2025, the chaos has given way to something even more unsettling: uncertainty.

Wholesale prices may have stabilised from their crisis peaks, but the road ahead is anything but smooth. Europe’s energy system is shifting, and the UK is caught in the middle of a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic puzzle. The balance of power in gas, oil, and electricity markets is changing, and the UK must navigate a landscape where the old assumptions about stability, supply, and cost no longer hold.