What If the EU Fails to Refill Gas Storage? The UK’s Energy Market Faces a Reckoning

Europe’s gas reserves are dwindling, and this time, there’s no easy way out. Storage levels have fallen below 50%, far earlier in the year than expected, and the continent is burning through gas at its fastest rate since the 2022 energy crisis. European governments had hoped to glide through this winter with enough reserves left to make summer refilling straightforward. That hope is now fading fast.

The EU’s strategic response? Unclear. Some countries, notably Germany, are already pushing for a relaxation of gas storage mandates, arguing that rigid targets could push prices even higher while offering little security. But the real issue runs deeper: what if Europe simply cannot refill its gas storage this summer? What happens if market conditions, geopolitical factors, and logistical constraints combine to make this a crisis that money alone cannot solve?

The implications are severe—particularly for the UK, which remains reliant on European gas flows despite its LNG capabilities.