Energy Market Update - 03 July 2024

The UK gas market opened long this morning, with stronger flows observed through Vesterled and Langeled.

Spot prices across Europe and the UK's NBP were mixed at the close of yesterday's session. Norwegian exit nominations were at 335.6mcm/day, while UK demand remained below averages. NBP front month and front season saw marginal increases of 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. JKM front month delivery prices edged lower, with a preference for LNG cargoes to the Asian region due to a $1.646 MMBtu premium to TTF. Power prices rose overall, except for DA which fell by £6.45/MWh.

The UK system opened 19mcm long this morning as UKCS terminal receipts increased and LNG sendout remained flat. Hartlepool 1 nuclear unit (0.6GW) is scheduled to return from maintenance today. Windspeeds are forecasted to be strong this week, with peak production at 15,000 MWh/h. Temperatures are expected to stay below seasonal norms until 09 July, then rise above averages. One LNG cargo is expected in the UK by 11 July, with more headed to North West Europe.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.69 and the NBP Front Month at 78.73p. Visund remains on unplanned outage with flow levels at 334mcm. Russian nominations are stable, with Velke Kapusany at 40.3mcm and Sudzha at 42.4mcm. EU gas storage is at 77.62% full. This morning, TTF Front Month is at €33, down €1 from the previous settlement.

UK power prices show the Front Month Baseload contract at £71 and Front Season at £89. Brent oil is at $86.24, and EUAs are at €70.67. Henry Hub is at $2.44, and JKM is at $12.56. Wind generation is expected to increase significantly, which has pressured Day Ahead prices down.