Energy Market Update - 07 June 2024

The energy market remains steady as supply improves with the resumption of Norwegian flows and mild demand pressures.

Natural gas prices showed minor fluctuations today with NBP at 80.09p/therm and TTF at €33.76/MWh, reflecting stable supply conditions. Increased Norwegian flows via Langeled, now at 42mcm/day, have bolstered UK gas supplies, reducing net storage withdrawals and maintaining an 8mcm system surplus. Lower overall UK demand, currently at 116mcm, continues to support this supply-demand balance.

In the power market, UK BSLD prices are slightly higher at £79.51/MWh, aligning with increased wind generation offsetting lower temperatures. European power markets saw Dutch BSLD at €76.38/MWh and German BSLD at €74.81/MWh. Forecasts indicate above-average wind generation through the weekend, mitigating additional demand from cooler weather conditions.

Oil prices rose by 2% to $79.87/bbl following the European Central Bank's rate cut, hinting at potential similar actions from the Federal Reserve. This increase is also supported by OPEC+ assurances regarding flexible oil output adjustments. The UK power curve was muted with NBP gas easing, reflecting confidence in Nyhamna's return to service.

Overall, the energy market is navigating a complex landscape with cautious optimism. Continued monitoring of supply disruptions and weather forecasts will be critical for stakeholders.