Energy Market Update - 15 April 2024

The market experienced a notable uptick in Friday's session, influenced by geopolitical tensions and energy supply concerns.

This week, geopolitical escalations in the Middle East are anticipated to heighten market sensitivity, compounded by forecasts of temperatures trending towards seasonal norms, marking a shift from previously higher levels. The Friday session closed with the TTF Front Month contract up at €30.73 and the NBP Front Month contract at 76.38p, reflecting the underlying nervous sentiment.

In terms of supply disruptions, the Nyhamna plant's unexpected outage has reduced gas flow levels, with current readings at 316mcm, down from 342mcm. Similarly, Russian gas nominations have shown slight declines. These factors, alongside a steady EU gas storage level of 61.69% and five impending LNG arrivals in the UK, suggest a tight but managed supply scenario. Notably, the TTF Front Month contract was down to €30 this morning, indicating some immediate reaction to the ongoing events.

The energy sector also witnessed dynamic movements in oil and carbon markets, with Brent Oil holding at $90 and EUAs rising sharply to €72. The UK's power market showed an increase with the Front Month Baseload contract at £65 and the Front Season at £84, reflecting broader energy market concerns. The ongoing conflict and supply issues are likely to continue influencing market trends in the coming days.