Energy Market Update - 15 July 2024

The market saw a slight upward movement on Friday, maintaining a stable trend over recent weeks.

In the UK, power prices followed the trend set by NBP gas. The Front Week power contract eased by £1/MWh due to an upward revision in wind generation forecasts for the week starting 15th July, now expected to reach 7.7GW, more than 10% above the seasonal average. TTF Front Month settled at €31.72, while NBP Front Month closed at 73.12p. There were no unplanned outages this morning, with stable gas flows and Russian nominations remaining consistent. EU gas storage is at 80.77%, and no LNG vessels are expected in the UK in the coming weeks. UK Front Month Baseload power is at £64, with Front Season at £84.

Friday's session saw European and UK natural gas spot prices edge higher despite stable fundamentals. Norwegian shelf exit nominations were slightly down at 334.3mcm/day. An unplanned outage at Visund curtailed 5.4mcm/day, and planned maintenance began on 15th July. UK forecasted demand remained below seasonal norms. EDF announced the return of two reactors, while Dampierre-4 went offline for maintenance. Maintenance at France's Montoir LNG terminal was extended to 1 August.

This morning, the UK system opened 15mcm/day long, with increased flows via Langeled and UKCS receipts. Norwegian shelf exit nominations rose to 342mcm/day. The Oseberg outage was resolved over the weekend. EU gas storage levels are steady at 80.77%, and LNG imports to Europe are 25% lower than last year. The UK expects one LNG vessel by the end of July.