Energy Market Update - 19 June 2024

NBP prices have opened relatively unchanged, moving slightly lower this morning. The front month Jul-24 contract is at 80.80p/th, down 0.60p/th day on day. Comfortable supply and demand balances, with the UK system 17mcm long and total demand 70mcm below seasonal norms, are adding downwards pressure.

Norwegian outages and strong oil prices support the market, with the TTF Front Month contract down €1 at €34. UK power prices show stability, with the Front Month Baseload contract at £74/MWh. Skarv and Visund outages continue, impacting supply, while EU gas storage remains robust at 73.85%.

Warmer weather forecasts, predicting temperatures peaking over 4 degrees above seasonal norms next week, contribute to reduced demand. The UK system opened long this morning by 17mcm/day, with increased Langeled flows and steady LNG sendout. The lack of LNG arrivals in the UK and ongoing Norwegian outages maintain a bullish trend.

Brent Oil is at $85, driven by US Federal Reserve comments on interest rate cuts and a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil terminal. In other markets, EUAs are at €69, Henry Hub at $2.91, and JKM at $12.60. UK power prices have gained along the curve, influenced by maintenance on the Viking Link interconnector limiting flows between the UK and Denmark.