Energy Market Update - 25 June 2024

The energy market experienced a relatively flat session with minor upward movements supported by various factors, including weather forecasts and supply stability.

Yesterday’s session saw minor gains across European natural gas hubs and the UK NBP, driven by lower wind-generated output and increased gas storage injections. Norwegian gas flow remained steady at 324 mcm/day, with the Hammerfest LNG facility resuming operations. Sanctions on Russian LNG supported bullish sentiment in Central Europe, affecting broader markets. Asian LNG prices declined, narrowing the gap between TTF and JKM.

Today's session opened with the UK system 8 mcm/day oversupplied due to mild temperatures and low LDZ demand. Increased wind forecasts may reduce the need for gas-fired power generation. Gas flows from the UKCS are expected to rise. Norway’s gas flow is up to 333.9 mcm/day, with one LNG cargo inbound to the UK. EU gas storage remains healthy at 75.35% full, with the UK at 44.29%.

Market prices reflect cautious optimism. The NBP spot price is 82.00 p/therm, UK DA Base Power is £82.11/MWh, Brent Oil is $86.01/bbl, and EUA Carbon is €67.35/tonne. The TTF Front Month contract is stable at €34.00. The UK power market shows stability with the Front Month Baseload at £72.00/MWh. The GBP/EUR exchange rate stands at 1.1802.