Energy Market Update - 30 May 2024

The energy market remains range-bound with no clear trend as bullish and bearish drivers offset each other.

The NBP opened in line with last night’s close. The market is influenced by bullish factors like Norwegian maintenance, poor LNG schedules, and uncertainty around Russian supplies to Austria, balanced by bearish system dynamics. The UK system is oversupplied by 17mcm, with demand at 137mcm, 65mcm below the seasonal normal. Increased Langeled nominations and mild weather forecasted into the weekend further reduce demand.

No significant price changes were noted in yesterday’s session. The TTF Front Month contract settled at €33.88, and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.59p. Kollsness continues to experience process issues, with an unplanned outage impacting flow levels slightly. EU gas storage stands at 69.27% full, and one LNG vessel is expected in the UK in the coming weeks.

This morning, the Front Month TTF contract is at €34, unchanged from the previous settlement. Key contracts show stability with slight changes: Curve TTF Front Month at €34 and Front Season at €39; Curve NBP Front Month at 82p and Front Season at 102p. UK power prices remain stable with the Front Month Baseload at £73 and Front Season at £91. Brent Oil is steady at $84, while EUAs are slightly down at €74.

Overall, the UK NBP traded marginally higher on Wednesday, supported by Norwegian flow improvements and healthy European storage. Temperatures across Europe are expected to remain above seasonal norms, reducing demand pressure. Planned Norwegian outages at Karsto and Dvalin have been extended, causing slight market caution. UK power markets saw mixed performances with elevated wind forecasts reducing Day Ahead and front week prices.