Energy Market Update - 03 April 2025
Energy markets moved lower across the board yesterday as President Trump’s newly announced global trade tariffs created broader economic uncertainty. Key gas and power contracts eased, driven by bearish sentiment and stable supply fundamentals.
European natural gas prices declined on Wednesday, reacting to the announcement of sweeping US tariffs, which excluded energy commodities but fuelled global economic slowdown fears. The TTF front-month contract settled at €41.26/MWh, down from €42.45, while the UK’s NBP front-month closed at 99.33p/therm, down from 102.65p. The downward pressure stemmed from weaker macroeconomic sentiment and milder weather forecasts, with UK temperatures expected to rise 4–5°C above seasonal norms over the weekend. Storage injections continued with EU gas reserves at 34.05% full, up from 33.59%, while Norwegian flows into the UK held steady at 302mcm. No unplanned outages were reported, and LNG arrivals into the UK over the next two weeks dropped from five to two vessels. This morning, the TTF front-month contract opened at €40/MWh, extending yesterday’s losses.
UK power prices mirrored the decline in gas markets, with the front-month baseload contract falling to £80/MWh from £82, and the front-season contract dropping to £91/MWh from £93. Spot baseload also fell to £68/MWh from £73. Despite overall bearishness, short-term power prices remain supported by forecasts for lower wind generation next week, which could increase reliance on gas-fired power. French power prices continue to trade below the UK, aided by reduced demand and strong nuclear availability, keeping cross-border flows into Britain elevated. Additionally, UK carbon prices slipped by £1/tCO2, applying further downward pressure to power contracts.
In other markets, Brent crude settled at $74.95/bbl, up slightly from $74/bbl the day prior. Despite the modest rise, oil markets face volatility from trade policy shifts, with reciprocal tariffs expected to dampen global demand. European carbon prices also declined, with EUA December 2025 contracts closing at €68.55, down from €69.86, following the broader commodity sell-off. Coal prices fell as well, with the ARA CIF Cal-26 contract at $111.49/tonne, a drop of $2.26 from the previous session. In the LNG market, Asian JKM prices eased to $13.19/MMBtu, while US Henry Hub rose slightly to $4.06/MMBtu. The TTF equivalent price now stands at $13.16/MMBtu, down from $13.46.