Energy Market Update - 25 March 2025
Energy markets remained largely flat at the start of the week, with some intraday fluctuations but little change in overall sentiment. The market’s key focus remains on the progress of US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Both US and Russian officials have signaled positive discussions, with a joint statement expected this morning. Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities have outlined energy infrastructure sites to be protected under a ceasefire proposal, adding a layer of geopolitical uncertainty to energy markets.
atural gas prices saw minor movements, with the TTF front-month contract settling at €42.75/MWh, slightly up from the previous session, while NBP front-month edged higher to 103.97p/therm. Early trading today has seen TTF drop to €42/MWh. European storage remains stable at 34.01% full, while Norwegian gas flows are steady at 329 mcm/day. The market continues to weigh the impact of increased LNG arrivals, with six cargoes expected in the UK this week. Supply-side concerns persist, including the potential impact of upcoming Norwegian maintenance, which could tighten European gas availability in the coming weeks.
In the UK power market, baseload contracts were mixed. The UK front-month baseload settled at £88/MWh, while the front-season contract stood at £84/MWh, both slightly down from the previous session. Spot prices softened to £96/MWh, reflecting mild temperatures and steady supply. Wind generation forecasts for the weekend indicate above-seasonal output, which could place downward pressure on short-term prices. Meanwhile, transmission constraints remain in focus, particularly interconnector flows between the UK and continental Europe.
Oil markets reacted to geopolitical developments, with Brent crude rising slightly to $73/bbl. The market is also monitoring potential US tariffs on Venezuelan oil, which could escalate trade tensions with China, the largest importer of Venezuelan crude. European carbon prices edged higher, with EUA December 2025 contracts at €72, while coal prices remained steady at $103.03/tonne.
With the US-Russia joint statement due this morning, market direction today may depend on any new developments in peace talks.