Energy Market Update - 05 July 2024

European gas prices gained on Thursday amid technical trading, as the Dutch TTF market rebounded from a six-week low, supporting the UK NBP market.

The spot market moved upwards yesterday across European natural gas hubs, driven by news of a Russian attack on an unspecified gas facility in Ukraine. An unplanned outage at the Oseberg field, extended to 06 July, and ongoing issues at Visund, now expected to end on 14 July, contributed to market tightness. Total gas flow from Norway was 324.6mcm/day. Curve prices rose in response to these developments, with increased geopolitical risks impacting the market.

The UK system opened 8mcm long this morning, with exports via gas interconnectors to the continent totaling 48mcm/day. Norwegian export nominations increased by 5mcm/day, with Vesterled flows rising despite ongoing maintenance at Langeled, reducing capacity to 53mcm/day until 07 July. LDZ demand is slightly above average today. MRS and Rough injections total 11mcm/day.

Windspeeds are forecast to remain high until Sunday, then decrease and stay below average for the coming weeks. Temperatures will remain below seasonal norms until 10 July, then rise above averages.

Yesterday, TTF Front Month settled at €32.69, and NBP Front Month at 75.97p. Brent oil prices increased slightly to $87.43, and coal prices rose to $117.09. EU carbon prices are at €70.07. UK power prices fell, with the Day-Ahead Base price at £59.26/MWh. The UK has one LNG cargo expected within the next week.