Energy Market Update - 08 July 2024

A flat end to the week as contracts remained stable, with the US celebrating Independence Day and the UK welcoming a new government.

Temperatures in the UK and Europe are expected to dip later this week before rising above seasonal norms for the remainder of the month. The southern US is preparing for hurricane weather, potentially impacting LNG send out. The unplanned outage at Visund has been extended again, now expected to end this week.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.07 and the NBP Front Month at 77.27p. This morning, TTF Front Month is unchanged at €33. Visund remains on outage, with total Norwegian flows at 342mcm. EU gas storage is at 78.76% full.

The UK system opened 15mcm long today, with Langeled flows at 73mcm/day. UK LDZ demand is slightly higher due to below-normal temperatures, expected to rise next week. Strong wind generation is reducing gas for power demand. Norwegian exports to the continent total 340mcm/day. MRS nominates withdrawals of 16mcm/day and Rough injections of 3mcm/day. The UK continues to export via IUK and BBL pipelines.

Wholesale natural gas spot prices decreased on Friday, with stable supply from Norway despite maintenance at Oseberg and Visund. Gas curve prices edged lower due to bearish fundamentals. UK power prices followed suit, with the Day-Ahead Base price at £47.00/MWh. Brent oil is at $86.54, and EU carbon prices are at €70.36.