Energy Market Update - 18 July 2024

The energy market held steady yesterday as gains seen on Tuesday were largely erased. This equilibrium is influenced by steady gas flows and above-seasonal temperatures.

UK gas prices opened in line with yesterday's close, with the front month NBP contract trading at 74.50p/therm. The system remains oversupplied by 19mcm/day due to increased flows via Langeled and Vesterled. No LNG cargoes are scheduled to arrive at UK terminals, though North West Europe sees steady arrivals. Pan-European storage levels are at 80.16%, while Norwegian flows reached 334mcm/day.

UK power prices tracked gas movements, with the day-ahead base at £77.02/MWh. Wind generation is expected to rise from 2GW to 6GW by the weekend. French nuclear availability averages 43.6GW, significantly above the historical average. European gas prices fell as the market focused on fundamentals, despite a potential restart at Freeport.

Brent oil prices rose to $85.08/bbl due to decreased US crude stockpiles. Carbon prices stand at €66.54/tonne, and the GBP/EUR exchange rate is at 1.1917. The overall market sentiment remains stable amidst complex but manageable supply and demand dynamics.