Energy Market Update - 19 July 2024

The energy market showed resilience yesterday, recovering losses seen on Wednesday.

The market maintained its position with the TTF Front Month contract settling at €32.67, up from €31.89, and the NBP Front Month contract at 76.04p, rising from 73.77p. There were no unplanned outages this morning, with gas flows stable at 335mcm and Russian nominations unchanged at Velke Kapusany and Sudzha. EU gas storage remains robust at 81.83%, though no LNG vessels are expected in the UK in the next fortnight.

This morning, the TTF Front Month contract opened at €32, down €1 from its previous settlement. Key contracts showed minor adjustments: TTF Front Season at €38 (up from €37), NBP Front Season at 96p (up from 94p), and the UK Gas NBP spot at 74p (up from 71p). UK Power Day-Ahead prices dropped to £74 (from £75), while Front Month Baseload rose to £66 (from £65), and Front Season to £84 (from £83).

UK power prices rose on Thursday, with the front month gaining £1.89/MWh. The NBP lifted due to technical trading and support from the European heatwave, though temperatures are expected to normalize next week. EU Carbon prices rebounded after hitting a six-week low, indicating a technical floor. Despite a global IT outage causing disruptions, UK gas prices moved lower this morning due to strong supplies and weak demand amid Europe's heatwave. Reduced Norwegian maintenance has stabilized UK imports, and robust EU storage continues to support the market.

Brent oil remained stable at $85, and EUA prices were slightly lower at €66. Henry Hub gas prices increased to $2.13, and JKM prices rose to $12.20, reflecting a TTF equivalent of $10.46. The market remains balanced, with low wind increasing gas demand for power and cooling needs due to the high temperatures.